Following you will find the Maui Real Estate March 2014 Sales Statistics and a summary of what is currently going on in the Maui real estate market.
February 2014 Sales / Sales January / % Change / Sales Feb 2013 / % Change
Homes 60 65 -8% 66 -9%
Condos 87 94 -7% 101 -14%
Land 11 13 -15% 14 -21%
Feb 2014 Median Price /Median Price Mar 2013 /% Change / Median Apr 2012 /% Change
Homes $560,000 $695,000 – 19% $537,500 4%
Condos $345,000 $441,000 – 22% $360,000 – 4%
Land $400,000 $370,000 8% $502,500 -20%
March 2014 /Current Inventory /Inventory Feb 2014/ % chg /Months of available inventory
Homes 685 656 0% 11.4
Condos 912 882 +3% 10.5
The reports we get from the mainland say that the real estate slump nationally has been caused by four things:
- Lack of inventory
- Rising prices
- Rising interest rates
- Bad weather
Those factors are all relevant to this particular year. On the mainland there is another factor, the “seasonal selling”. That just means that more homes are sold from the spring through the late summer/early fall than in the winter time on the mainland.
In the Maui real estate market we have two busy seasons. They are the winter, when the market on the mainland is slow and cold and again in the summer, matching the mainland.
So, if we are in peak season, why have sales slowed on the Maui real estate market? Interest rates and inventory do play a role, particularly for the first time or entry level buyer. But on a very simple level there is a basic disconnect between the sellers who listen to the news and hear that prices are rebounding and buyers who think its still 2010.
Will we ever get back to a normal market? Sales Tips may be in order, to help get your business ahead of the rest. From negotiating and pitching, to closing a deal, you’ll have your business back to being the success it once was. If you are working in a sales job that has you on road, you might need a route planner to help plan out your sales route. Let’s look at the numbers and trends and see if we can figure out anything.
Condo sales slide while prices remain steady
Condo sales have been on a downhill slide since April 2013. However, prices have remained relatively stable. However, in Singapore, Parc Clematis has seen a boom in Condo sales and prices remain healthy. It’s amazing how markets differ!
In April of 2013 Maui hit a 3 year high with 144 condos sold. March sales this year totaled only 87. While that’s still far better than the numbers we had in 2009, it’s still a 40% drop in monthly sales.
April is usually one of the biggest months for closed sales. That’s because from January through March, Maui’s peak buying season, we see a lot of condos go under contract. The sales are “pending” and a lot of them close in April.
This year overall “pendings” are down, but those numbers do not give a clear picture. Through the first two months of 2014, condo sales are actually up 10% compared to the same 2 months in 2013.
The Central (Kahului/Wailuki) area saw the greatest year to date decrease in sales. That’s because during the same time period last year there were a lot of brand new condos on the market at places like Milo Court and Hoolea Terrace. Most of those new condos have been sold and what is now available is available at a higher price. The difference in what is available for sale and what is selling is reflected in a 26% decline in the median selling price.
The Napili/Kahana/Honokowai area reflects the flip side of that coin. Buyers and sellers in that stretch north of Kaanapali have connected. There has been a 77% increase in sales over the same period last year. February’s median price for the area declined by 11.7% compared to January. Year to date the median is down by 9% and the average price is down 18% from a year earlier.
In Kihei there have been 60 sales so far this year and there were 60 sales during the same time period last year. The median selling price in Kihei is up by a mere 3%.
With selling prices down or virtually flat in the three areas that account for 70% of condo sales, it appears that buyers at the lower end of the market are searching for value and eschewing higher priced properties.
Both sales and prices are headed in a positive direction in Kaanapali. Sales are up by 19% and the median price is up 31%. Much of the sales volume, 36% and the upward price, is driven by sales at Honua Kai. Honua Kai still has unsold inventory of two and three bedroom units. It appears that buyers are finding value there, particularly for units priced between $1 and $1.5 million.
It appears buyers are also finding value in Wailea. Wailea sales are statiscally even with last year, but the median selling price is up by 40%.
Highs and Lows
The lowest selling price for a Maui condo in February was $42,500. That was paid for a leasehold Napili Ridge studio. The lowest price paid for a fee simple condo was $90,000 but you have to take a boat to get there – it’s a one bedroom unit at Wavecrest on the friendly island of Molokai.
Single family home sales is a tale of two markets – Sellers and Buyers disconnect on current value
As previously noted, the sales of single family homes has been on the decline since its peak in May 2013. At that time the median selling price was about $544,000.
In February the median selling price was only marginally higher at $560,000 and that is part of the “disconnect”. The median listing price is currently $1,049,000.
Of the 576 homes actively listed for sale on Maui, only 88 or 15%, are listed at or below the median buying price. In other words, half of the buyers in the market for homes are competing for 15% of the homes listed. At the current rate of sales, that means there isn’t even 3 months worth of inventory, which indicates it is clearly a sellers market.
Now, if you flip that around and analyze the other side of the median selling price, you see that there were 30 sales of homes above the median, however there are 490 priced higher than the median. That translates to enough inventory for well over a year and that sounds like a buyers market!
You don’t have to go much higher than the median selling price to get to a buyer’s market. Even for homes listed between the median selling price and the median listing price, $560,000 – $1,049,000, there were only 21 sales with 201 listings, which translates into 9+ months of inventory.
Once prices go over the median listing price we find there is enough inventory to last for almost 3 years. That doesn’t mean your property won’t sell if you’re in that price range, in fact the biggest gain in home sales nationwide is for homes over $1,000,000. But if you want to be one of the 9 per month that are selling, you need to have your home completely ready, your agent needs to be totally engaged and executing a great marketing strategy, and you have to be priced for today’s market.
In terms of area highlights, after only 2 short months, there isn’t much to see in the way of trends emerging. But, there is some notable activity in some key markets.
If there is a “hot area” right now it’s Kihei. Sales are up by 16% and both the average selling price and the median selling price (at $580,000) are up by 37% and 27% respectively. Kihei’s median price and other attractive activity make Kihei a good value. With its current prices and sales activity, we would expect to see prices rise and inventory dwindle in the coming months.
The Central Area of Kahului/Wailuku, which has been the “go-to” area for more affordable prices is going in the opposite direction of Kihei. Sales are off by 21% and even though the median selling price is well below the island wide median, of the 92 homes listed for sale, only 10 are priced at median or below.
However, the Central area remains the most attractively affordable spot on Maui so look for sales and prices to ramp up throughout the year.
No other areas in the Maui real estate market are even in double digit sales except Kula.
The high end markets remain comparatively slow. Kapalua has had one sale this year, Kaanapali 3 and Wailea has double those areas combined with 8. However the average selling price is down between 3% and 7% in all areas.
So, while there are sales at the upper end, we are not really seeing any evidence of prices moving up in the Maui real estate market…yet.